Will It Rain Today?

“How long until we have a vaccine for covid?” is the most discussed forecast in the world right now.

But forecasting is a complex science.

Just consider the weather forecast:

◙ A 7-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80% of the time

◙ A 5-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90% of the time

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◙ However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

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Now imagine experts weighing in on a vaccine for covid.

The expert forecasts weigh:

◙ the vaccine will hit shelves in Sep 2020

◙ we won’t have a vaccine until mid-2021

◙ there may never be a vaccine for covid

credit: fleet science center

Forecasting is like time-traveling to the future. And time-travel — if you read or watched enough Sci-Fi — is a super-power.

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