“How long until we have a vaccine for covid?” is the most discussed forecast in the world right now.
But forecasting is a complex science.
Just consider the weather forecast:
◙ A 7-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80% of the time
◙ A 5-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90% of the time
◙ However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.
Now imagine experts weighing in on a vaccine for covid.
The expert forecasts weigh:
◙ the vaccine will hit shelves in Sep 2020
◙ we won’t have a vaccine until mid-2021
◙ there may never be a vaccine for covid
Forecasting is like time-traveling to the future. And time-travel — if you read or watched enough Sci-Fi — is a super-power.